Euro 2020

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 19, 2021 at 8pm UK

San Mamés Barria

Spain
1 - 1
Poland

Morata (25')
Torres (81'), Rodri (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lewandowski (54')
Klich (36'), Moder (57'), Jozwiak (59'), Lewandowski (90+3')

Reaction

Spain coach Luis Enrique pictured on June 14, 2021

Spain boss Luis Enrique rues second-half penalty miss

Gerard Moreno saw his spot-kick hit a post, soon after Robert Lewandowski equalised.

Jun 19, 22:55

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 53.25%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Poland had a probability of 22.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.

Result
Spain	Draw	Poland
53.25%	23.96%	22.79%

Both teams to score 52.64%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.55%

48.45%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.42%

70.58%

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.87%

18.13%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.91%

49.09%

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.3%

35.7%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.52%

72.47%

Score Analysis

Spain 53.25%

Poland 22.79%

Draw 23.95%

Spain	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 11.05% 2-1 @ 9.72% 2-0 @ 9.44% 3-1 @ 5.53% 3-0 @ 5.37% 3-2 @ 2.85% 4-1 @ 2.36% 4-0 @ 2.29% 4-2 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.42% Total : 53.25%	1-1 @ 11.38% 0-0 @ 6.47% 2-2 @ 5.01% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.95%	0-1 @ 6.67% 1-2 @ 5.86% 0-2 @ 3.43% 1-3 @ 2.01% 2-3 @ 1.72% 0-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 1.92% Total : 22.79%