Euro 2020

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 11, 2021 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Turkey
0 - 3
Italy

Soyuncu (88'), Dervisoglu (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Demiral (53' og.), Immobile (66'), Insigne (79')

Reaction

Italy head coach Roberto Mancini pictured on June 4, 2021

Roberto Mancini hails "wonderful night" as Italy sweep aside Turkey

Merih Demiral's own goal early in the second half gave Italy a deserved lead before further goals from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne.

Jun 11, 23:00

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Turkey had a probability of 20.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.3%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Turkey win it was 1-0 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Turkey	Draw	Italy
20.39%	27.93%	51.67%

Both teams to score 39.14%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.37%

64.63%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.37%

83.63%

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.53%

47.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.16%

82.84%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.52%

25.48%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.68%

60.32%

Score Analysis

Turkey 20.39%

Italy 51.66%

Draw 27.93%

Turkey	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 9.01% 2-1 @ 4.59% 2-0 @ 3.36% 3-1 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.29% Total : 20.39%	1-1 @ 12.32% 0-0 @ 12.09% 2-2 @ 3.14% Other @ 0.38% Total : 27.93%	0-1 @ 16.53% 0-2 @ 11.3% 1-2 @ 8.42% 0-3 @ 5.15% 1-3 @ 3.84% 0-4 @ 1.76% 2-3 @ 1.43% 1-4 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.91% Total : 51.66%