World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage

Mar 25, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Ennio Tardini

Italy
2 - 0
N. Ireland

Berardi (14'), Immobile (39')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Saville (48'), Thompson (90+4')

Reaction

Northern Ireland manager Ian Baraclough pictured on September 7, 2020

Ian Baraclough takes positives from Italy defeat

Northern Ireland were the better team for long stretches after the break.

Mar 25, 23:28

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 59.22%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 14.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.76%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.22%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	Northern Ireland
59.22%	26%	14.78%

Both teams to score 35.1%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.08%

64.91%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.17%

83.83%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.71%

22.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.25%

55.75%

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.16%

54.83%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.22%

87.78%

Score Analysis

Italy 59.2%

Northern Ireland 14.78%

Draw 25.99%

Italy	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 18.34% 2-0 @ 13.76% 2-1 @ 8.27% 3-0 @ 6.89% 3-1 @ 4.14% 4-0 @ 2.59% 4-1 @ 1.55% 3-2 @ 1.24% Other @ 2.42% Total : 59.2%	0-0 @ 12.22% 1-1 @ 11.02% 2-2 @ 2.49% Other @ 0.26% Total : 25.99%	0-1 @ 7.34% 1-2 @ 3.31% 0-2 @ 2.21% Other @ 1.92% Total : 14.78%