UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Netherlands national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Netherlands

Pellegrini (16')
Verratti (23'), D'Ambrosio (80'), Kean (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
van de Beek (25')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and the Netherlands, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawNetherlands
45.16%23.81%31.02%
Both teams to score 60.33%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.4%41.6%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36%64%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.33%18.67%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50%50%
Netherlands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.17%25.82%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.21%60.79%
Score Analysis
    Italy 45.16%
    Netherlands 31.02%
    Draw 23.81%
ItalyDrawNetherlands
2-1 @ 9.19%
1-0 @ 8.09%
2-0 @ 6.79%
3-1 @ 5.14%
3-0 @ 3.8%
3-2 @ 3.48%
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 1.59%
4-2 @ 1.46%
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 45.16%
1-1 @ 10.95%
2-2 @ 6.22%
0-0 @ 4.82%
3-3 @ 1.57%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.81%
1-2 @ 7.42%
0-1 @ 6.53%
0-2 @ 4.42%
1-3 @ 3.35%
2-3 @ 2.81%
0-3 @ 1.99%
1-4 @ 1.13%
2-4 @ 0.95%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 31.02%

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