UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Netherlands national football team
Nations League | League A
Sep 7, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
Italy national football team

Netherlands
0 - 1
Italy


Veltman (69'), Wijnaldum (84'), Depay (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Barella (45+1')
D'Ambrosio (23'), Cristante (84'), Chiellini (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's UEFA Nations League clash between the Netherlands and Italy, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
NetherlandsDrawItaly
36.81%24.16%39.03%
Both teams to score 60.82%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.31%41.69%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.91%64.09%
Netherlands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.43%22.56%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.84%56.16%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.55%21.45%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.53%54.47%
Score Analysis
    Netherlands 36.81%
    Italy 39.03%
    Draw 24.16%
NetherlandsDrawItaly
2-1 @ 8.26%
1-0 @ 7.21%
2-0 @ 5.36%
3-1 @ 4.1%
3-2 @ 3.16%
3-0 @ 2.66%
4-1 @ 1.53%
4-2 @ 1.17%
4-0 @ 0.99%
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 36.81%
1-1 @ 11.09%
2-2 @ 6.36%
0-0 @ 4.84%
3-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.16%
1-2 @ 8.54%
0-1 @ 7.45%
0-2 @ 5.74%
1-3 @ 4.38%
2-3 @ 3.26%
0-3 @ 2.94%
1-4 @ 1.69%
2-4 @ 1.26%
0-4 @ 1.13%
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 39.03%