Euro 2020

European Championship | Round of 16

Jun 28, 2021 at 5pm UK

Telia Parken

Croatia
3 - 5
Spain

Pedri (20' og.), Orsic (85'), Pasalic (90+2')
Brozovic (73'), Caleta-Car (84')

FT
(aet)

Sarabia (38'), Azpilicueta (57'), Torres (77'), Morata (100'), Oyarzabal (103')

Reaction

Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal celebrates scoring their fifth goal against Croatia at Euro 2020 on June 28, 2021

Luis Enrique reflects on "spectacle" as Spain overcome Croatia in thriller

Spain needed two goals in extra time to finally see off Croatia 5-3.

Jun 28, 21:12

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.26%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%).

Result
Croatia	Draw	Spain
28.93%	25.8%	45.26%

Both teams to score 52.45%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.62%

51.38%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.8%

73.19%

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.81%

32.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.32%

68.68%

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.35%

22.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.72%

56.28%

Score Analysis

Croatia 28.93%

Spain 45.26%

Draw 25.8%

Croatia	Draw	Spain
1-0 @ 8.26% 2-1 @ 6.96% 2-0 @ 4.68% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-2 @ 1.95% 3-0 @ 1.77% Other @ 2.68% Total : 28.93%	1-1 @ 12.27% 0-0 @ 7.29% 2-2 @ 5.17% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.8%	0-1 @ 10.82% 1-2 @ 9.11% 0-2 @ 8.04% 1-3 @ 4.51% 0-3 @ 3.98% 2-3 @ 2.56% 1-4 @ 1.68% 0-4 @ 1.48% 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.14% Total : 45.26%