Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 54.83%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 22.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%).