Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 77.79%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Eastleigh had a probability of 8.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.37%) , while for a Eastleigh win it was 0-1 (2.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.