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National League South | Gameweek 22
Dec 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Mill Field

Aveley
3 - 4
Farnborough

Ogunrinde (37', 61'), Hernandez (66')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Pendlebury (45+3'), Kuhl (77'), Fearn (86'), Saied (90')
Coverage of the National League South clash between Aveley and Farnborough Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Weymouth 1-1 Aveley
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Farnborough 2-2 Bath City
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Farnborough Town win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Aveley had a probability of 36.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Farnborough Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Aveley win was 1-0 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Farnborough Town would win this match.

Result
AveleyDrawFarnborough Town
36.14%25.51% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 38.35% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Both teams to score 55.91% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.98% (0.015999999999998 0.02)48.01% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.81% (0.015000000000001 0.02)70.18% (-0.014999999999986 -0.01)
Aveley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.17% (0.0080000000000098 0.01)25.83% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.2% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)60.79% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Farnborough Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.38% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)24.61% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.88% (0.014000000000003 0.01)59.12% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aveley 36.14%
    Farnborough Town 38.35%
    Draw 25.5%
AveleyDrawFarnborough Town
1-0 @ 8.61% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-1 @ 8.17% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 5.83% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 3.68%
3-0 @ 2.63% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.58% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 36.14%
1-1 @ 12.06%
0-0 @ 6.36% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-2 @ 5.72% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.5%
0-1 @ 8.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 8.46% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 6.25% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 3.95% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.92%
2-3 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.39% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.02%
2-4 @ 0.94%
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 38.35%

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