Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Hemel Hempstead Town win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AFC Hornchurch in this match.