Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.