Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gloucester City win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gloucester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gloucester City would win this match.