Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Chorley win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.