Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 37.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.