Still in contention for their first Scudetto since 1990, Napoli face one of their toughest remaining tests on Sunday, as they welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Maradona.
Three wins on the spin have helped the Partenopei pull within a point of the Serie A summit, while their latest visitors also claimed victory last weekend - edging out Empoli in a Tuscan derby.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a 3-1 win over Atalanta last Sunday, when they took a two-goal lead before half time, Napoli's pursuit of a long-awaited title remains tantalisingly close for the club's loyal fanbase, and they have bounced back from a potentially critical defeat to Milan in some style.
Having previously beaten both Verona and Udinese 2-1, Luciano Spalletti's side have picked up more points in Serie A during the second half of the season (27, with eight wins, three draws and just that one defeat) than any other team.
Their success in Bergamo last week means that they have still lost only one league match outside of Naples this term - winning 11 times in the process - and are still three points clear of third-placed Inter.
At home, though, Napoli have won only three of their last eight league games. Indeed, four of their five Serie A defeats this season have been at the Maradona, where they have only the seventh-best home record in the division: 29 points from 15 games.
Following a 2-1 victory in October's reverse fixture, the Azzurri have won their last three games against Fiorentina in Serie A - scoring at least two goals on each occasion - so should be confident of improving that record on Sunday afternoon.
Napoli last managed four in a row versus the Viola back in the glory days between 1988 and 1990, and as they attempt to emulate that side by lifting the Scudetto next month, another win could prove vital to their cause.
© Reuters
Since Fiorentina's 6-0 crushing by Sunday's opponents back in January 2021 - the club's heaviest top-flight defeat in 15 years - much has changed in Florence, and Vincenzo Italiano's current side are winning both points and plaudits for their positive approach this season.
After claiming a point against reigning champions Inter just before the international break, the Viola resumed with victory in the Derby dell'Arno last week; consigning Empoli to a 1-0 defeat through Nicolas Gonzalez's goal, scored just moments after their Tuscan rivals were reduced to 10 men.
As a result, they have accrued 14 points from their last seven matches and sit eighth in the Serie A standings - four points behind Roma in the final European qualification spot, but with a game in hand.
Aspirations of a return to continental football will be tempered, however, by the knowledge that the upcoming fixture list pits Fiorentina against Milan, Roma and Juventus - not to mention their trip to Naples this weekend.
If they wish to break into the top six by the campaign's climax, then, Italiano may have to solve his side's defensive deficiencies sooner rather than later, as only Hellas Verona and Salernitana have posted fewer clean sheets on the road than their tally of one, which came way back in September.
In fact, Fiorentina have conceded in each of their last 11 games away from home, and should they fail to keep Napoli at bay for 90 minutes, they will reach 12 in the same season for the first time since 2010.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Though top scorer Victor Osimhen suffered a thigh injury during training in midweek, the Nigeria international should be available to lead the line for Napoli on Sunday after returning from suspension.
However, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Adam Ounas and back-up striker Andrea Petagna are all out of action for the home side, with the former again set to be replaced by young Alessandro Zanoli.
As Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa is sidelined by a one-match ban, Fabian Ruiz is set to be drafted back into Luciano Spalletti's starting XI, while in support of Osimhen up front, the soon-to-depart Lorenzo Insigne has scored more Serie A goals (nine) against Fiorentina than any other team.
Fiorentina midfielder Giacomo Bonaventura remains on the treatment table with a knee problem and misses out for the visitors, and Alvaro Odriozola is not expected to be involved either - Lorenzo Venuti deputises for the latter.
At the focal point of the Viola's attack, Arthur Cabral will hope to retain the centre-forward role ahead of Krzysztof Piatek despite drawing a blank last time out, while in the engine room, Sofyan Amrabat takes the place of the suspended Lucas Torreira.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Zanoli, Rrahmani, Koulibaly, Rui; Lobotka, Zielinski, Ruiz; Politano, Osimhen, Insigne
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Venuti, Igor, Milenkovic, Biraghi; Castrovilli, Amrabat, Duncan; Saponara, Cabral, Gonzalez
We say: Napoli 1-0 Fiorentina
In this meeting between the two teams with the highest average possession of the Serie A season - Napoli with 59% and Fiorentina on 57% - the fight for midfield supremacy could be integral to either side's success.
If they can win that tussle, the hosts are best placed to claim all three points from a close-fought affair, as their greater individual ability in attack can make the difference once again.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 1-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 1-2 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
