After suffering a humiliating home defeat last weekend, the reigning Ligue 1 champions Lille return to action on Saturday when they travel to Stade de la Mosson to face Montpellier HSC.
La Paillade fell apart in the latter stages of their previous encounter, dropping a 3-1 decision to last-place Saint-Etienne, while Les Dogues conceded five times in a domestic encounter for the first time since the 2019-20 campaign, losing to Paris Saint-Germain 5-1.
Match preview
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Montpellier began the way that Olivier Dall'Oglio had hoped they would at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, taking the crowd out of the game with a 13th-minute strike, but just like in their other away league fixtures this year, this group crumbled in the final minutes as the pressure on them continued to mount.
Throughout their match, in the Massif Central, this team struggled to maintain the ball for long stretches while allowing Les Verts many quality scoring opportunities, which Saint-Etienne were able to capitalize on eventually with three goals in the final eight minutes plus stoppage time.
Dall'Oglio noted afterwards that his side were not strong technically throughout that encounter, adding that they lacked aggression when taking the lead, just like they did back in mid-January after carrying a 1-0 advantage deep into the second half versus Strasbourg, before conceding three goals in nine minutes to fall 3-1.
As concerning as some of their collapses have been recently, playing at home might be what is needed to steer this team back on course, having captured seven league fixtures in Occitania in this campaign, the third-most among sides in Ligue 1 this season, behind only Rennes (eight) and PSG (10).
This side have proven to be quite difficult to contain on their home ground, scoring seven goals in their last three league encounters and tallying multiple times in seven different matches at La Mosson.
They have dropped three of their last four games domestically, which is as many defeats as in their previous 11 fixtures, but despite that, La Paillade trail Stade Rennais by a mere three points for a place in the Europa Conference League next season.
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The magical run to the title for Lille in 2020-21 seems like a long time ago, as their current campaign hit rock bottom last week at home to Les Parisiens.
Les Dogues beat the odds last season with a solid defensive foundation, along with a practical defensive shape that rarely provided openings to the opposition, conceding only 23 goals, the fewest in a 38-match top flight campaign in France since 2015-16 when PSG only allowed 19 goals.
Not only has their defensive posture under Jocelyn Gourvennec been poor compared to the one we saw with his predecessor Christophe Galtier, but they have also struggled to come away with points on a regular basis, suffering seven defeats after 23 matches, four more than they incurred in their championship season.
This team have not lost three successive league fixtures since 2019-20 when they dropped that many games in between December and January during that campaign.
When you play a team that focuses on defence first before moving into transition, it is safe to say that scoring the opener is imperative, and that is something which Les Dogues have failed to do much of lately, drawing first blood in only two of their last seven league games.
With 15 domestic fixtures still to be played and trailing PSG by 24 points, regaining their title would be a long shot, but returning to European competition is still possible as they are five points back of Rennes for fifth, while two victories and some help could put them even with Strasbourg for a spot in the Europa League.
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Team News
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Defender Ambroise Oyongo scored the winning penalty for Cameroon last weekend as the Montpellier man helped his country defeat Burkina Faso to win bronze at the Africa Cup of Nations. The leading goalscorer for this team, Stephy Mavididi, is out with a knee injury, Maxime Esteve continues to be hampered by thigh problems, while Thibault Tamas and Pedro Mendes are still recovering from ACL issues.
Elye Wahi has fired home the opening goal in his side's last two domestic affairs, currently sitting in second on the team with six tallies, one more than Florent Mollet, while their skipper Teji Savanier has become one of their top playmakers with six assists.
In their previous meeting with Lille back in August, a red card from Junior Sambia seemed to ruin any hope of a comeback for La Paillade, who fell 2-1 on that day with their only tally coming courtesy of former striker Gaetan Laborde.
Jose Fonte set up the opening goal from Yusuf Yazici for Lille versus Montpellier in that encounter, though the Turkish midfielder is currently on loan at CSKA Moscow, while the second leading goalscorer in Ligue 1, Jonathan David, notched the winner.
Hatem Ben Arfa, who joined the defending French champions on a six-month contract before the winter transfer window closed, got his first start for his new club last weekend, playing alongside David, while their leading scorer from a season ago, Burak Yilmaz, who had 16 goals in 2020-21, has only found the back of the net four times in this campaign.
While he has yet to score in his two appearances for Les Dogues, Ben Arfa was able to set up the only goal for his new side last weekend, as Sven Botman collected his third strike of the season, while the former French international (Ben Arfa) needs two assists to draw even with Yilmaz, Isaac Lihadji, Renato Sanches and Tim Weah for the team lead.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Ristic, Sakho, Thuler, Souquet; Leroy, Chotard, Ferri, Mollet; Wahi, Germain
Lille possible starting lineup:
Grbic; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Gudmundsson; Weah, Onana, Andre, Gomes; Ben Arfa, David
We say: Montpellier HSC 1-2 Lille
Lille were humbled by the league leaders last weekend, and we believe that result could serve as motivation to get their act together, and when you combine that with the fact that three of their next four competitive fixtures will be away from home, where they have lost only once in their previous five domestic encounters, all signs point to a victory for this team.
Montpellier are rarely shut out, but they have failed to maintain their composure at critical times, and that could hurt them as they try to contain one of the most dangerous attackers in Ligue 1 (Jonathan David).
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lille in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lille.
