Montpellier HSC have a chance to extend their winning streak to four matches in all competitions as they wrap up 2021 with a date against Angers in Ligue 1 action on Wednesday from Stade de la Mosson.
La Paillade are currently fifth in the table, three points above Les Scoistes, who have lost their last two games, including a 2-0 defeat in the Coupe de France on Sunday.
Match preview
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Olivier Dall'Oglio has to be feeling good about his team's form this month, currently maintaining a 100% record, winning all three of their league contests and edging Andrezieux in their Coupe de France tie on Sunday.
That run has them in a position to claim a spot in the qualifying round of the Europe Conference League next season but with a chance to end the year tied for third with a win and some help, currently trailing Rennes by three points.
It took this team some time to adjust to their new boss's aggressive approach as they gave up their share of goals in the early portion of this campaign, conceding nine in their opening four fixtures and winning only three of their first 11 games played.
Even though they have allowed 16 targeted efforts in their previous three league fixtures, this group have shown a much stronger commitment to defending and getting back to prevent a number of good scoring opportunities from their opponents.
They have only won one match all season when conceding the first goal of the game, but they have done a much better job of not falling behind in the opening half, which was an issue for them before December, allowing three goals in the first half-hour in each of their final two Ligue 1 matches played in November.
Throughout this campaign, Montpellier have been able to take full advantage of their home field, losing only one of their last eight matches played at Stade de la Mosson, with that lone defeat coming at the hands of Lyon (1-0) last month.
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It has been a December to remember for La Paillade thus far, but this month has been anything but memorable for Gerald Baticle and Les Noirs et Blancs.
The month began with a poor defensive effort versus Monaco where they conceded three goals on eight targeted efforts, and even though they got past Stade de Reims in their next match (2-1), they were shut out by Ligue 1 debutants Clermont and were knocked out of the Coupe de France, by Linas-Montlhery this past weekend, a fifth-tier side from the North of France.
Back in November Baticle cautioned his team not to get too ahead of themselves despite an impressive beginning to this campaign in which they only lost three of their first 15 matches played, however, their recent setbacks suggest that this group may have temporarily lost their focus on what is ahead of them and rested on their laurels a little too much.
While losing to a fifth-tier team may not be the best boost to their confidence, Angers have managed to bounce back from some disappointing performances domestically, failing to lose consecutive matches in Ligue 1 so far this season.
Playing away from Stade Raymond Kopa could be just what they need right now, as Les Scoistes have only suffered one defeat on the road this season, dropping a 2-1 decision to PSG in mid-October, the fewest amount of away losses of any team in the French top flight so far in this campaign.
Despite their recent struggles, they have been pretty sharp in the final third domestically, scoring in 19 of their previous 21 league encounters.
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Team News
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Montpellier skipper Teji Savanier had the only goal in their victory at the Coupe de France over the weekend as the 29-year-old has been a valuable asset to this team so far in 2021-22, leading them in assists in the league with five and also scoring four times domestically.
Goalkeeper Jonas Omlin has stopped the last 10 shots fired his way in Ligue 1, while striker Elye Wahi has goals in his previous three domestic affairs but remains one back of Stephy Mavididi for the team lead as he is in a four-way tie for second alongside Savanier, Valere Germain and Florent Mollet.
Maxime Esteve has missed the last few matches with a muscle injury but is recovering nicely and could be ready to return to the field soon.
Baticle made one change to his starting 11 in their defeat to Clermont from the side who started against Reims, with Mohamed-Ali Cho taking the place of Stephane Bahoken.
Sofiane Boufal is the only Angers player to find the back of the net this month, with their lone other tally coming thanks to an own goal by Monaco goalkeeper Alexander Nubel in a 3-1 defeat to Les Monegasques at the beginning of December.
Boufal is also second on the team in assists with three, putting him ahead of Angelo Fulgini and Thomas Mangani, who have two, and he is only two behind Jimmy Cabot, who has five.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Ristic, Sakho, Thuler, Souquet; Chotard, Leroy; Mavididi, Savanier, Sambia; Wahi
Angers possible starting lineup:
Petkovic; Ebosse, Traore, Thomas, Doumbia; Cabot, Ounahi, Mangani, Fulgini; Bahoken, Boufal
We say: Montpellier HSC 2-0 Angers
Angers appear to be a little short on confidence right now and are lacking that quality in the final third, while their track record versus Montpellier in recent years has not been good, winning only one of their previous seven road fixtures against them.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Angers had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Angers win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
