Montpellier HSC will be looking to pick up where they left off before the international break when they welcome an out-of-sorts Strasbourg side to the Stade de la Mosson for Sunday's Ligue 1 showdown.
While the hosts recorded back-to-back victories before international football took centre stage, Strasbourg's lowly form continued as they lost two on the bounce earlier this month.
Match preview
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Montpellier boss Michel Der Zakarian was haunted by a poor set of results in the lead up to Halloween, but La Paillade appear to have turned a corner in the month of November.
This weekend's hosts saw their strong start to the season slowly dissipate as Montpellier went four games without a win - including that torrid 4-0 home thrashing at the hands of Reims - but Der Zakarian witnessed his side pick up two victories with clean sheets to boot before the international break.
In spite of the absence of their inspirational captain Hilton, Montpellier have coped well without the 43-year-old as they scraped past Saint-Etienne 1-0 before recording another away victory six days later - this time beating Bordeaux 2-0 in their most recent Ligue 1 outing.
Second-half goals from Florent Mollet and Andy Delort against Les Olympiens ensured that Montpellier's charge for a European berth gathered momentum before the international break, and La Paillade will certainly feel confident of keeping their perfect November run going over a struggling Strasbourg side this weekend.
Four wins out of four this month is a realistic aim for Montpellier, who travel to another floundering side in Lorient before December rolls around, in which Der Zakarian's men must navigate a daunting clash with Paris Saint-Germain heading into the festive period.
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In stark contrast, Strasbourg's slump has continued and Thierry Laurey's men are second from bottom heading into this challenging showdown, with winless Dijon the only side to accumulate fewer points than Les Coureurs after 10 matches.
Dijon are one of only two sides to have fallen victim to Strasbourg so far in the 2020-21 campaign, with Laurey possibly forgiven for believing his side's fortunes were about to change following an impressive 3-0 win at Brest last month.
However, Strasbourg soon returned to losing ways as they succumbed to a 2-1 defeat to Reims before losing 1-0 on their own turf to Marseille, with Morgan Sanson coming off the bench to net a late winner in gameweek nine.
An unlikely win here would see Les Coureurs climb out of the relegation zone should Lorient and Nimes lose to Lille and Reims respectively, but Strasbourg have only picked up one win in their last seven against Montpellier, and the visitors have not triumphed away from home against La Paillade since 2004.
Montpellier HSC Ligue 1 form: DLDLWW
Strasbourg Ligue 1 form: LLLWLL
Team News
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Hilton is back for this one having served a two-game suspension, but given how well the 4-3-3 has worked in the veteran's absence, Der Zakarian may be reluctant to revert back to the three-man defence for the visit of a lowly Strasbourg.
The hosts will continue to make do without Damien Le Tallec for another couple of weeks, with the midfielder seeing red alongside Hilton in that loss to Reims.
Goalkeeper Jonas Omlin has been forced to sit out recently owing to a thigh problem, but the 26-year-old is back in full training and in line to replace Dimitry Bertaud in between the sticks.
As for Strasbourg, Laurey has been dealt a huge blow as recent reports have claimed that Alexander Djiku will be forced to miss this one with a muscular problem.
Ibrahima Sissoko is therefore expected to deputise in midfield, but Laurey is boosted by the return of striker Ludovic Ajorque, who missed the defeat to Marseille through suspension.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Souquet, Congre, Mendes, Oyongo; Ferri, Mollet, Savanier; Mavididi, Delort, Laborde
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Kamara; Lala, Simakan, Kone, Mitrovic, Caci; Sissoko, Bellegarde, Thomasson; Ajorque, Diallo
We say: Montpellier HSC 2-0 Strasbourg
It would be wholly inaccurate to suggest that Strasbourg have simply rolled over and allowed their defence to be breached too easily over the past few weeks. Laurey's men have given it a good go, but their results have still been poor. In contrast, Montpellier are only looking upwards after a bright start to November, so we are backing the hosts to walk away with all three points in this one.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 27.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
