Montenegro will be looking to record their third victory in Group G when they continue their World Cup 2022 qualification campaign away to Gibraltar on Friday night.
The visitors are currently fourth in the section, five points behind second-placed Norway, while Gibraltar are rock bottom, having lost all six of their group games thus far.
Match preview
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Sitting 197th in the FIFA rankings, Gibraltar have only been competing to make the finals of a European Championship or World Cup since 2016, and they lost all 10 of their matches while attempting to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
Los Llanis, who are the second-smallest UEFA member in terms of population behind San Marino, have struggled to compete in Group G, losing all six of their six matches to sit at the bottom of the section, scoring just three times and conceding 25 in the process.
Gibraltar played three times in the group last month, losing to Latvia and Norway on their travels and suffering a 3-0 home defeat to Turkey on September 4.
Julio Cesar's side now have matches against Montenegro and Netherlands this month before finishing their qualification campaign against Turkey and Latvia in November.
Gibraltar will once again fall extremely short in terms of advancing to the finals but managing to put a point on the board would be seen as a big step in the right direction for the national team.
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Montenegro, meanwhile, are currently fourth in Group G, having won two, drawn two and lost two of their six matches to collect eight points, which has left them five points behind second-placed Norway.
Miodrag Radulovic's side started their qualification campaign with successive wins over Latvia and Gibraltar, but they are winless in their last four, drawing with Turkey and Latvia, in addition to losing to Norway and Netherlands.
Montenegro will know that they need to collect maximum points from their two October fixtures in order to stand a serious chance of claiming a top-two finish in the section.
The Brave Falcons have never qualified for the finals of a World Cup or European Championship, but they did top their UEFA Nations League 2020-21 group with 13 points from six games to gain promotion to League B and will be the overwhelming favourites to triumph on Friday night.
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Team News
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Jack Sergeant, Ethan Jolley and Anthony Hernandez all started Gibraltar's last match against Norway, but the trio are not in the squad this time around, so there will have to be changes to the first XI.
It would not be a surprise to see Cesar again opt for a 5-4-1 formation, with Reece Styche, who has three goals at international level, the favourite to lead the line.
Liam Walker, Graeme Torrilla and Kian Ronan are also expected to earn spots in the starting XI, while 38-year-old Roy Chipolina should captain the team from defence.
As for Montenegro, leading goalscorer and captain Stevan Jovetic is back in the squad, and the 31-year-old is expected to operate alongside Fatos Beciraj in a front two on Friday night.
An experienced midfield is likely to include Nikola Vukcevic and Aleksandar Scekic, while Milan Mijatovic should retain his spot between the sticks.
Head coach Radulovic has plenty of options in the final third of the field, and Stefan Mugosa, who has netted 11 times in 39 appearances for his country, is pushing for a starting role.
Gibraltar possible starting lineup:
Goldwin; R Chipolina, Annesley, Wiseman, Mouelhi, Britto; Walker, Torrilla, Ronan, Valarino; Styche
Montenegro possible starting lineup:
Mijatovic; Vesovic, Vujacic, Tomasevic, Radunovic; Vukcevic, Scekic, Kosovic, Haksabanovic; Jovetic, Beciraj
We say: Gibraltar 0-3 Montenegro
Gibraltar will be desperate to put a point on the board before their qualification campaign ends, but it is difficult to imagine where it would come from. Montenegro have superior quality all over the field and should prove to be far too strong for their opponents on Friday night.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 47.03%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
