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Moldova national football team
Nations League | Relegation Playoffs | 1st Leg
Mar 24, 2022 at 5pm UK
 
Kazakhstan national football team

Moldova
1 - 2
Kazakhstan

Nicolaescu (45+1')
Reabciuk (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Maliy (64'), Posmac (79' og.)
Suyumbayev (72'), Maliy (75')

Preview: Moldova vs. Kazakhstan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Moldova and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

To decide their UEFA Nations League fate for the 2022-23 season, international minnows Moldova and Kazakhstan meet in Chisinau on Thursday.

The competition's first two-legged 'play-outs' will select which nation will stay in League C and which is consigned to Europe's bottom tier.


Match preview

Denmark's Lasse Schone in action with Moldova's Igor Armas Ritzau on March 28, 2021© Reuters

Because League C constitutes four groups while League D is made up of only two, the two teams to be relegated are set to be determined over the course of the next week.

As the Faroe Islands and Gibraltar have already been promoted from League D, Moldova - the fourth-ranked team of those taking part - will do battle with the first-ranked team of the quartet, Kazakhstan.

World-ranked 181, Moldova most recently finished bottom of qualification Group F for the upcoming Qatar 2022 World Cup, with just a single point to show from their 10 games - ending their miserable campaign with a 4-1 defeat in Austria last November.

Under former coach Roberto Bordin, they managed to score only five goals in the qualifying process and conceded 30; shipping eight away to Denmark this time last year.

Indeed, Moldova are involved in these two-legged deciders due to also finishing bottom of their Nations League group, in which they picked up only one point.

That came from a draw with the Faroes almost 12 months ago, which represents the last time the Eastern European state avoided defeat.

France's Lucas Digne in action with Kazakhstan's Marat Bystrov on March 28, 2021© Reuters

Ranked 120th in the global pecking order, Kazakhstan start the tie as the pundits' pick to retain League C status, having enjoyed better results than their Moldovan counterparts in recent months.

Despite finishing bottom of Group 4, the Hawks managed to beat Lithuania and held group winners Albania to a goalless draw in Almaty, before enduring a difficult World Cup qualifying process.

Though they ultimately finished their campaign winless, the Kazakhs at least drew twice with Euro 2020 quarter-finalists Ukraine and scored a stoppage-time equaliser to snatch a point against Bosnia-Herzegovina last September.

The lowlights, though, featured an 8-0 drubbing by France and consecutive home defeats by Bosnia and Finland - and their last competitive win came as long ago as September 2020.

Coach Andrei Karpovich led his side to a 1-0 friendly victory over Tajikstan last time they took to the turf, so will hope they can continue that run into 2022, as they kick off this tie in the rare position of favourites.

Moldova Nations League form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Moldova form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Kazakhstan Nations League form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Kazakhstan form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Moldova's Ion Nicolaescu celebrates scoring their first goal on March 25, 2021© Reuters

Moldova have called up a squad featuring four potential debutants, but still have their most experienced players available for Thursday's first leg.

Scorer of the hosts' most recent competitive goal, Maccabi Petah Tikva striker Ion Nicolaescu should therefore start up front alongside Radu Ginsari, who is the leading goalscorer in the squad with seven international strikes to his name.

In a likely midfield three, Benevento midfielder Artur Ionita is set to pull the strings, having compiled 61 caps and three goals to date.

Meanwhile, CSKA Moscow's Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov is the highest international goalscorer in Kazakhstan's selection, with nine goals to his name from 21 matches. The 23-year-old forward is expected to feature up front for the visitors, after scoring the only goal in a friendly win over Tajikstan last time out.

Another Russian Premier League player, Aleksey Shchyotkin of Rotor Volgograd, is also poised to start in attack.

Moldova possible starting lineup:
Namasco; Armas, Posmac, Bolohan; Jardan, Rata, Dros, Ionita, Reabciuk; Ginsari, Nicolaescu

Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Pokalitov; Logvinenko, Alip, Maliy; Bystrov, Kuat, Zhukov, Vasiliev, Vorogovskiy; Shchyotkin, Zaynutdinov


SM words green background

We say: Moldova 0-1 Kazakhstan

Neither side is used to winning, even in the modest environs of League C, so the first leg could well be an attritional affair decided by a single goal.

The visitors are best placed to take a lead back home for next Tuesday's return, given their higher standing and past results against some of Europe's mid-ranking nations.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 36.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.18%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Moldova win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Kazakhstan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Kazakhstan.


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Game History

How you voted: Moldova vs Kazakhstan

Moldova
22.6%
Draw
15.1%
Kazakhstan
62.3%
53
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