Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vancouver Whitecaps would win this match.