Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.74%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-2 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.