Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 48.52%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 48.52% | 23.68% | 27.8% |
| Both teams to score 58.66% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.14% | 42.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.74% | 65.26% |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.18% | 17.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.44% | 48.56% |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% | 28.61% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.58% | 64.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% 1-0 @ 8.8% 2-0 @ 7.59% 3-1 @ 5.46% 3-0 @ 4.36% 3-2 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 2.35% 4-0 @ 1.88% 4-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 3.71% Total : 48.52% | 1-1 @ 11% 2-2 @ 5.94% 0-0 @ 5.1% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.67% | 1-2 @ 6.89% 0-1 @ 6.38% 0-2 @ 3.99% 1-3 @ 2.87% 2-3 @ 2.48% 0-3 @ 1.67% Other @ 3.53% Total : 27.8% |