Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 51.24%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Los Angeles Galaxy would win this match.