Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for DC United had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest DC United win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.