Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 28.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.