Middlesbrough square off against Bristol City on Saturday afternoon looking for the victory which will keep the club in the Championship playoff positions.
At a time when Boro currently occupy sixth spot in the standings, Bristol City are down in 17th place after losing nearly half of their league fixtures this season.
Match preview
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Having won eight of their last 11 Championship matches, you would have expected Middlesbrough to hold more than a two-point cushion inside the playoffs.
Nevertheless, it highlights the magnitude of the job that Chris Wilder is pulling off at the Riverside Stadium, and there is every sign that will continue in their bid for promotion.
For the first time since April, Boro scored more than two goals in a league fixture last weekend as they posted a 4-1 victory against Derby County.
Brighton & Hove Albion loanee Aaron Connolly was among the goalscorers as Boro recorded a sixth successive win in the North East, taking them to 32 points from 16 home fixtures this campaign.
All things considered, Middlesbrough have a relatively favourable schedule ahead of them, but Wilder is aware that complacency cannot become an issue if they want to return to the Premier League.
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With Bristol City's last six Championship wins coming at Ashton Gate, Middlesbrough will certainly not underestimate opponents who continue to perform inconsistently.
As has been well documented, the Robins are without back-to-back league wins this season, a run which was extended when they gave up a half-time lead at Swansea City last weekend.
Conceding three times in South Wales made it 28 goals shipped in just 11 league games, and Bristol City are now only two goals short from having the worst defensive record in the division.
At a time when his side play three promotion contenders in succession, Nigel Pearson knows that he can ill-afford more defeats if he is to be kept at the helm for 2022-23.
On a positive note, Andreas Weimann has now reached 15 goals in the Championship this season, a total which is complemented with six assists.
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Team News
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Middlesbrough midfielder Matt Crooks will be assessed after sustaining a head injury which forced his withdrawal against Derby.
Riley McGree could be drafted into the side for his first Boro start, while Wilder has decisions to make over his forward line.
Connolly and Folarin Balogun impressed in the absence of Andraz Sporar and Duncan Watmore, and only two of the four will start this contest.
Daniel Bentley may start ahead of Bristol City's first-choice goalkeeper Max O'Leary, who was withdrawn during the second half of the Swansea game through injury.
Joe Williams is pushing for an opportunity in midfield, but George Tanner, Matty James and Andy King are likely to remain sidelined.
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Vyner, Kalas, Klose; Dasilva, Massengo, Williams, Pring; Weimann; Semenyo, Martin
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Lumley; Dijksteel, Fry, McNair; Jones, McGree, Howson, Tavernier, Taylor; Sporar, Connolly
We say: Bristol City 1-2 Middlesbrough
While Bristol City have improved at Ashton Gate as the season has progressed, this match may be more about how Boro perform on their travels. All things considered, they have a poor record away from the Riverside Stadium, but we are backing Wilder's side to edge this contest in the latter stages.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 49.58%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.56%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 1-0 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
