Seventh meets eighth in Saturday lunchtime's Ligue 1 showdown as Metz welcome fellow European outsiders Rennes to the Stade Saint-Symphorien.
The hosts failed to return to winning ways last time out as they played out a 2-2 draw with Lens, while Bruno Genesio got off the mark at Rennes, who beat Strasbourg 1-0.
Match preview
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Metz head into their battle with eighth-placed Rennes having just endured a taxing 90 minutes against their fellow European hopefuls Lens, in a battle between two sides who were hardly expected to be challenging for a continental berth before a ball was kicked this season.
Frederic Antonetti's men fell behind twice to goals from Jonathan Clauss and Yannick Cahuzac, but Vagner's penalty and another delightful finish from Thomas Delaine - his third goal in four matches - ensured that Metz would avoid defeat and kept them in the running for a top-five finish with nine games left to play.
The seventh-placed Grenats now find themselves three points adrift of last weekend's opponents Lens and a reinvigorated Marseille, so Antonetti's men are certainly rank outsiders to secure a European place given the form of the two sides above them, but one slip-up is all it takes for Metz to propel themselves back above that elusive dotted line.
However, Metz's home form does not inspire much confidence as they have prevailed in just two of their last 10 at the Stade Saint-Symphorien and are winless in their last three on familiar territory, as the absence of supporters continues to nullify the home advantage phenomenon.
Nevertheless, the 42 points that Metz have already accumulated is their highest at this stage of the season since the 1997-98 campaign - when they finished as runners-up - and they will be desperate not to be usurped by Rennes and their fresh face in the dugout in gameweek 30.
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Bruno Genesio came out second best in the battle of the new managers against Jorge Sampaoli's Marseille in his inaugural match, but the Rennes leader finally gave the Rouge et Noir faithful something to cheer as his side scraped a 1-0 win over an in-form Strasbourg last Sunday.
Reinstated to the starting lineup, Benjamin Bourigeaud repaid his manager's faith in him with the game's only goal on the 25-minute mark, with that triumph seeing Rennes end their six-game losing run and nine-game winless streak across all competitions since a 2-1 victory over Brest on January 17.
A month-long wave of optimism between December and January slowly dissipated in the following weeks for Rennes, which culminated in Julien Stephan making the difficult decision to walk away from the Roazhon Park, but last weekend's victory over Strasbourg has at least kept Rennes in with a fighting chance of qualifying for Europe once again.
Les Rouge et Noir are one point behind their weekend opponents and four adrift of the top five, but in order to leapfrog Metz this weekend, they would need to halt their three-game losing run away from home in the league - only Dijon are on a worse losing streak on rival territory - but their record against Les Grenats speaks for itself.
Indeed, Rennes have only lost one of their last sixteen encounters with their weekend opponents and are unbeaten in their last eight at the Stade Saint-Symphorien, while a Clement Grenier goal was enough for a Stephan-led Rennes to win 1-0 at home just before Christmas.
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Team News
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Metz will welcome two players back from suspension here in the forms of Kiki Kouyate and Fabien Centonze, both of whom are expected to earn immediate recalls to the first XI.
Kouyate will reprise his role in defence ahead of Mamadou Fofana, who could very well be pushed further up the pitch, while Centonze's inclusion on the right means that the prolific Delaine is in line to replace Matthieu Udol on the left.
Midfielder Warren Tchimbembe has gone under the knife for a knee injury and will not play again this season, while first-choice goalkeeper Alexandre Oukidja will serve the third game of his four-match ban.
As for Rennes, December's match-winner Grenier may not get the chance to repeat his heroics this weekend as he was forced to miss out against Strasbourg with an ankle problem, and he remains a doubt for this fixture as well.
Fellow midfielder Jonas Martin also played no part in last weekend's victory after coming down with a bout of illness, although Genesio confirmed that it was not COVID-19 and he could be available this weekend.
Genesio's brazen decision to drop Serhou Guirassy paid dividends against Strasbourg, but the 25-year-old will certainly hope to be recalled to the side for this game.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Caillard; Bronn, Boye, Kouyate; Fofana; Centonze, Maiga, Sarr, Delaine; Vagner, Boulaya
Rennes possible starting lineup:
Gomis; Traore, Da Silva, Aguerd, Truffert; Nzonzi, Camavinga, Bourigeaud; Doku, Guirassy, Terrier
We say: Metz 1-1 Rennes
This is an extremely difficult game to call between a Metz side who flatter to deceive at home and a Rennes side who are still finding their feet under Genesio. The hosts hardly boast a strong record against Les Rouge et Noir either, but six of the last eight games between these two clubs at the Stade Saint-Symphorien have ended with the spoils shared, and we can envisage another stalemate this weekend.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
