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Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 26, 2020 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Metz logo

Marseille
1 - 1
Metz

Sanson (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Niane (71')
Maiga (24'), Angban (55')

Preview: Marseille vs. Metz - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Metz, including team news and predicted lineups.

Marseille will endeavour to get back to winning ways when they welcome Metz to the Orange Velodrome for Saturday's Ligue 1 clash.

The hosts shared the spoils with Lille in a 1-1 draw last time out, while Metz picked up their first win of the season against Reims in gameweek four.


Match preview

Andre Villas-Boas in charge of Marseille on February 8, 2020© Reuters

Marseille fans could have been forgiven for expecting their side to keep the momentum going from their dramatic victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the second week of the season, but it has not panned out that way for Andre Villas-Boas and co.

In the two games that Marseille have played since that historic win in Le Classique, Villas-Boas has witnessed his side suffer defeat against Saint-Etienne and scrape a draw against Lille on familiar territory.

Marseille were only a few minutes away from losing a second top-flight game on the bounce following Luiz Araujo's opener for Lille, but Valere Germain restored parity for Les Olympiens five minutes before the full-time whistle blew last Sunday.

As things stand, Villas-Boas' side occupy seventh spot in the table with seven points from a possible 12, but it is still far too early to be thinking about final season rankings, of course.

However, with champions PSG starting to look more like their familiar selves after a slow start to the campaign, Marseille will be determined to prove that their last two results are nothing more than a temporary blip in their audacious quest for Ligue 1 glory.

In contrast, Metz finally managed to get off the mark in the French top flight as they overcame Europa League contenders Reims 2-1 last Sunday afternoon.

Vincent Hognon's men had suffered three defeats by a 1-0 scoreline to Monaco, Lille and PSG at the start of the season, but two goals from Ibrahima Niane either side of a Boulaye Dia penalty saw Metz march to their first three points of the season against Reims – although they were helped by Marshall Munetsi's red card.

There is no denying that Metz have been handed one of the more difficult starts to the 2020-21 campaign, with their weekend clash with Marseille representing a fifth successive game against a side either in or expected to qualify for European competition this season.

However, Metz can look forward to less daunting fixtures against Angers and Lorient following their weekend showdown with Les Olympiens, although Hognon's side must also take on current leaders Saint-Etienne in October.

Marseille and Metz played out a 1-1 draw in last season's fixture, while the most recent meeting at the Orange Velodrome saw Marseille come out on top in a nine-goal thriller by six goals to three.

Marseille Ligue 1 form: WWLD

Metz Ligue 1 form: LLLW


Team News

Paris Saint-Germain forward Neymar clashes with Marseille's Alvaro Gonzalez on September 13, 2020© Reuters

Dario Benedetto returned from suspension against Lille but was overshadowed by Germain's introduction, and the latter will be holding out for a start here, albeit an unlikely one.

Jordan Amavi will serve the third and final game of his three-match suspension following the mass brawl in Le Classique, meaning Yuto Nagamoto will be expected to occupy the left-hand side of defence again.

Despite being caught up in allegations of racism against Neymar, Alvaro Gonzalez has continued to play in the heart of the Marseille defence alongside Duje Caleta-Car.

As for Metz, Niane is sure to keep his place up top following his brace against Reims, with Habib Diallo's future still shrouded in uncertainty.

Vincent Pajot is suspended for this one, and with Boubacar Traore and Kevin N'Doram still sidelined, centre-back Mamadou Fofana could be called upon to deputise in midfield.

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Sakai, Gonzalez, Caleta-Car, Nagamoto; Kamara, Sanson, Rongier; Thauvin, Benedetto, Payet

Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Centonze, Bronn, Boye, Udol; Fofana, Maiga, Angban; Nguette, Niane, Boulaya


SM words green background

We say: Marseille 2-0 Metz

Marseille have been handed the perfect chance to get back to winning ways against a Metz side who have lost three from four at the start of the new season. While the visitors will be encouraged by their victory over Reims, they will prove no match for a near full-strength Marseille side, so we can only see a comfortable home win in this encounter.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data


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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 60.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Metz had a probability of 16.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.23%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Metz?

Marseille
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
Metz
0.0%
0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG14104037112634
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon147432617925
6Lens156631914524
7Nice146532617923
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
14StrasbourgStrasbourg143562227-514
15Angers143471424-1013
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1440101126-1512
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1422101336-238


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