Maritimo and Arouca meet in Primeira Liga on Monday evening knowing that victory at Estadio dos Barreiros could catapult them up the table.
These two clubs have only posted one victory apiece from four fixtures, leaving them in 11th and 15th position respectively.
Match preview
After the stress of narrowly avoiding relegation last season, everyone associated with Maritimo would have been less than enthused about their opening four fixtures
However, the Green-and-Reds will be more than satisfied with four points from as many games, the standout result being a 1-1 draw at home to Porto.
The 2-1 reverse at in-form Estoril before the international break would have hurt Julio Velazquez and his squad, but they are scheduled to play more favourable fixtures over the coming weeks.
While none of this group of players have netted more than once this campaign, left-sided Vitor Costa has already chipped in with two assists.
Velazquez cannot be happy with his side's efforts in the final third, an opinion which will be shared by opposite number Armando Evangelista.
On the back of finishing in third place in the second tier, not much is expected of Arouca, particularly with the newcomers failing to score in three of their four games this season.
Nevertheless, two of those encounters were away at Benfica and Porto, their sole success coming against potential relegation rivals Famalicao.
Evangelista is still attempting to establish his strongest starting XI with as many as 22 players having been given game time throughout August.
However, the 47-year-old will be grateful for the competition for places at a time when only defender Thales can claim to have made a consistent start to life in the top division.
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
Despite losing out to Estoril last time out, Velazquez is not expected to make widespread alterations to his Maritimo XI.
Joel Tagueu is back on contention after recovering from a shoulder injury which has kept him sidelined since the opening weekend.
Pedro Pelagio may be handed a recall in central midfield, taking the place of either Ivan Rossi or Diogo Mendes.
Arouca will be without Sema Velazquez after the defender sustained an injury while on international duty with Venezuela.
Abdoulaye Ba is in line to be drafted in as his replacement, while young forward Tiago Araujo is pushing for his first start of the season.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; Junior, Saenz, Andrade; Winck, Xadas, Pelagio, Mendes, Costa; Vidigal, Alipour
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Castro; Thales, Ba, Basso, Quaresma; Valderrama, Silva, Moreira; Bukia, Silva, Arsenio
We say: Maritimo 2-0 Arouca
While neither side can claim to be in good form, we still feel that Maritimo are clear favourites for this contest. The visitors' poor record in front of goal must improve quickly, but the home side should be able to negate their attack on Monday evening.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
