Manchester United Women must win their remaining two matches in the Women's Super League, and hope that rivals Manchester City drop points in their last three games, to retain their current third-placed position.
West Ham United Women visit Leigh Sports Village on Sunday, having returned to winning ways last time out, meaning that they continue to sit in sixth spot.
Match preview
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Marc Skinner's side are on a six-game unbeaten run, but a goalless draw against Aston Villa last weekend may come back to haunt them in the final league standings.
The Red Devils dominated that match at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, but those two points that they dropped, allowed Man City to climb within one point of third spot, with a game in hand to the Citizens' advantage.
That is why the final Champions League qualification place is now out of Man United's control, after being in a prime position to make history and secure their first top-three finish, falling out at the final stage of the season will be a big disappointment.
Sunday's hosts are strong favourites to collect maximum points this weekend, having won seven of their 10 matches on home soil this season, scoring 26 goals in that time, suggesting that West Ham's defence will be heavily tested.
Arguably, Man United face a tougher end to this campaign than Man City, with Skinner's side facing the Hammers this weekend before a trip to Kingsmeadow to face Chelsea on the final day next Sunday.
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Olli Harder's team do not have much to play for in their final two matches, as they are heading for a strong mid-table finish, but they have already broken the club's WSL points record for a single season, and are on track for their best-placed finish.
Last time out, West Ham played out a close encounter against Reading at the Select Car Leasing Stadium, where the Hammers did come away with a 2-1 win, thanks to goals from Emma Snerle and Yui Hasegawa.
Prior to that outing, the Hammers had scored just seven goals in nine away league matches, and generally, they have rarely scored more than one goal in a single WSL match on their travels this campaign.
The hosts are expected to dominate possession, meaning that West Ham may look to dent Man United on the counter-attack, with two forward players in Adriana Leon and Lisa Evans leading the line, willing to make runs into the channels.
In the reverse fixture, West Ham's Grace Fisk scored a 93rd-minute equaliser to cancel out Ella Toone's earlier strike and deny Man United maximum points.
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Team News
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Skinner has named an unchanged side for the last three matches, and with centre-back Millie Turner still sidelined due to injury, Hayley Ladd will continue to partner Maria Thorisdottir in the heart of the back four.
Alessia Russo is currently the team's top goalscorer in the WSL, having netted nine goals in her 20 appearances, but Leah Galton is hot on her heels for the club's golden boot, having scored seven goals in 19 appearances.
An unchanged starting lineup will mean that Jackie Groenen is preferred to Vilde Boe Risa in midfield, but the latter is sure to come on from the bench, as she has done so in the last three matches.
Experienced centre-back Gilly Flaherty missed out on West Ham's last outing against Reading, meaning that Kate Longhurst transitioned from her usual wing-back role to a more central position in the back three, along with Hawa Cissoko and Fisk.
Zaneta Wyne made her first start since March last weekend, and after victory and a strong performance from the whole team, the Hammers are also expected to remain unchanged.
Manchester United Women possible starting lineup:
Earps; Blundell, Thorisdottir, Ladd, Batlle; Zelem, Groenen; Galton, Toone, Russo; Thomas
West Ham United Women possible starting lineup:
Arnold; Fisk, Cissoko, Longhurst; Svitkova, Snerle, Brynjarsdottir, Hasegawa, Wyne; Leon, Evans
We say: Manchester United Women 2-1 West Ham United Women
West Ham will be a tough opponent for Man United, despite the visitors not having much to play for in terms of league positions in this final stage of the campaign.
That is why the Hammers could get on the scoresheet and create problems for Skinner's team, but the Red Devils are expected to thrive under the pressure of having to win and that will help them collect all three points and keep the pressure on Man City.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 62.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for West Ham United Women had a probability of 17.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a West Ham United Women win it was 1-2 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United Women would win this match.
