The standout Premier League fixture this weekend takes place at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as Manchester City face Manchester United in the Manchester derby.
Three places and 19 points separate the two bitter rivals in the table, with the hosts seeking to steer clear of Liverpool at the top while the Red Devils aim to re-ignite their top-four pursuit.
Match preview
© Reuters
As we have become accustomed to seeing all season long, one team's hard work was undone by an inexplicable VAR decision, as Everton held Manchester City at Goodison Park and were somehow not awarded a penalty when the ball struck Rodri's arm inside the area.
A lapse of concentration from Michael Keane at the other end of the field allowed Phil Foden to prod home the game's only goal eight minutes from time, but Everton were reportedly apologised to by PGMOL chief Mike Riley after VAR official Chris Kavanagh saw nothing wrong with the Rodri incident.
However, champions certainly have to win ugly on a couple of occasions, and City have seemingly mastered the art of doing so, but they strolled to a 2-0 FA Cup fifth-round win over Peterborough United earlier this week to set up a quarter-final showdown with Southampton.
Foden's late Goodison goal saw Man City open up a six-point gap to Liverpool in the rankings - although the Reds do boast a game in hand - and Pep Guardiola will need no reminding of how his side's most recent home encounter went against Tottenham Hotspur.
However, the champions have unsurprisingly scored a joint-high 36 goals in the Premier League at home this term and have shipped a mere nine - winning seven in a row at the Etihad before that shock defeat to Spurs - and Man United's clinical edge was simply non-existent last time out.
© Reuters
Roy Hodgson has certainly instilled a greater sense of defensive resilience into this Watford side since his arrival, but groans of frustration emanated all across Old Trafford as the Red Devils could not finish a single one of their bountiful chances on the day.
A draw with Atletico Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano can be viewed as a successful result, but a 0-0 at home to the 19th-placed Hornets did not help Man United's top-four endeavours whatsoever, and the chasing pack are now closing in.
The Red Devils are just about clinging onto fourth spot but find themselves level on points with West Ham United - who travel to Liverpool on Saturday - while Arsenal have now cut the gap to just two points having played three fewer matches.
The draw with Hodgson's side did at least represent a sixth game without defeat for Man United in all competitions, and not since the Vicarage Road humiliation in November have the Red Devils lost away from home in any competition, but they are still waiting for their first away Premier League clean sheet of 2022.
City cruised to a 2-0 win over United earlier in the season, but the Red Devils are no stranger to turning up the heat at the Etihad and have won four of their last five in all competitions on their rivals' turf, but such a record will count for nought if they cannot find their best shooting boots.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Guardiola confirmed at his pre-match press conference that Nathan Ake and Ruben Dias are both unavailable for the derby, with the latter facing between four and six weeks out with a hamstring injury.
Zack Steffen and Cole Palmer are also injury concerns for the Citizens but would never have started here, and Guardiola now has Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus raring to go after their injury woes.
Kyle Walker has struggled for consistent starts of late but it would be surprising to see him not return to the first XI here, which would see John Stones return to a central role as Dias recovers.
As for Man United, Scott McTominay is expected to recover from illness in time to take his rightful place in the middle of the park, and Edinson Cavani could also be back from his groin problem, but Ralf Rangnick has admitted "question marks" over a couple of unnamed players.
Rangnick needs to be careful with Cristiano Ronaldo's 37-year-old legs, but reports have claimed that the five-time Ballon d'Or winner will start at the Etihad nonetheless, with Marcus Rashford on standby.
Fans will expect to see Nemanja Matic make way for Jadon Sancho after a toothless attacking performance against Watford, and Rangnick also has a big call to make over Harry Maguire after dropping the skipper last week.
Victor Lindelof and Raphael Varane did not do much wrong against the Hornets, so it would not be a complete surprise to see Maguire benched once again amid reports of unrest behind-the-scenes over his consistent game time.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Stones, Laporte, Cancelo; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Foden, Sterling
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Varane, Telles; Pogba, McTominay; Elanga, Fernandes, Sancho; Ronaldo
We say: Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United
Man United have something of a penchant for Etihad victories and possess the talent needed to produce another shock result here, but whether Rangnick's side have the defensive nous or attacking edge to do so is another question entirely.
Barring the surprise loss to Spurs, City have swept aside almost all who have come before them at the Etihad this season and are blessed with a near fully-fit squad, so we can only back the champions to come out on top in this crunch derby.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 59.22%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 20.42% and a draw had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 1-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (5.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
