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Aston Villa logo
Premier League | Gameweek 32
Apr 21, 2021 at 8.15pm UK
Villa Park
Manchester City logo
Aston Villa
1 - 2
Man City
McGinn (1')
Cash (54')
Cash (57')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Foden (22'), Rodri (40')
Gundogan (44')
Stones (44')

Preview: Aston Villa vs. Manchester City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Manchester City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aston Villa host Manchester City in the Premier League on Wednesday, with the Citizens requiring 11 more points to be assured of winning their third league title in the last four seasons under Pep Guardiola.

The Villans, meanwhile, can move back into the top half of the table by gaining a positive result.


Match preview

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith pictured on April 10, 2021© Reuters

Having began the season in blistering form, Villa have significantly dropped off in recent weeks, winning only two of their last eight matches since losing Jack Grealish to a shin injury.

Dean Smith's side came extremely close to avoiding defeat at Liverpool last time out, though, with recent England debutant Ollie Watkins firing the Villains into the lead largely against the run of play towards the end of the first half.

Indeed, Mohamed Salah had earlier missed a routine one-on-one opportunity for a man of his calibre after Tyrone Mings's failure to clear the ball, while Roberto Firmino also saw his goal controversially chalked off due to an extremely tight offside call going against Diogo Jota in the build-up.

If anything, Villa were more competitive after the break, with Salah's equaliser looking like resulting in a share of the spoils as the match fizzled out.

However, Trent Alexander-Arnold silenced his critics with a superb injury-time winner, picking up the ball outside the penalty area before displaying magnificent technique by powerfully caressing the ball into the far corner beyond a helpless Emiliano Martinez, who moments beforehand had made a superb stop to deny Sadio Mane from close range.

Despite a dip in results and performances, Villa should take encouragement from the fact that they can now consistently remain competitive against the league's stronger sides, having also lost narrowly late on against Man City earlier in the campaign.

Avoiding defeat without Grealish may prove tough on Wednesday, but they have shown they can stay in games even without their most talented player.

John Stones in action for Man City on February 7, 2021© Reuters

City's dreams of winning a historical quadruple came to a crushing end with a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley on Saturday, with Guardiola's side dealt a potentially even more damaging blow in the shape of Kevin De Bruyne's foot injury.

The Belgium midfielder limped off after 48 minutes, with Hakim Ziyech scoring the decisive goal of the game seven minutes later after an excellent breakaway led by Timo Werner.

City's lack of response was surprising, with them testing Chelsea's back-up goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga on only three occasions across the 90 minutes.

Guardiola's attention must now return to securing his third Premier League title in four seasons, especially with their rivals Manchester United reducing the gap at the top of the table to eight points after the Red Devils dispatched Burnley 3-1 on Sunday to record their fifth successive league win.

While City's lead still looks unassailable, it is the exact same points deficit at the exact same point of the season which they recovered against Man Utd themselves to win their first ever Premier League title under Roberto Mancini in the 2011-12 campaign.

A win against Villa would certainly do plenty to calm any growing nerves within City's ranks, then, especially ahead of Sunday's EFL Cup final against Tottenham Hotspur and next Wednesday's Champions League semi-final first leg away to Paris Saint-Germain.

The quadruple may be gone, but a treble is still very much within their grasp.

Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L

Manchester City Premier League form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Manchester City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne pictured in action against Chelsea in the FA Cup on April 17, 2021© Reuters

Villa are expected to remain without Grealish until early May, with the England midfielder recently suffering a setback in his road to recovery from a painful shin issue.

Trezeguet could miss the rest of the season after sustaining a knee injury in the defeat to Liverpool, with Anwar El Ghazi likely to replace the Egypt winger on the left flank.

Otherwise, Smith could name an unchanged XI as he looks to pack the midfield once again.

Morgan Sanson should be named among the substitutes having been rested for the trip to Anfield due to a minor knock to his knee, but the match against Man City is likely to come too soon for Wesley, who will hope to feature at some point before the end of the campaign as he continues to work his way back to full fitness following a serious knee injury.

Having rested several players in the home defeat to Leeds United last time out in the Premier League, Guardiola will be expected to pick a stronger lineup having seen his side's lead at the top of the table reduced in recent weeks.

Ederson, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ilkay Gundogan, Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez and Bernardo Silva were all named among the substitutes against Chelsea at the weekend and as such are likely to return to the first XI.

The club have confirmed that De Bruyne will miss the trip to Villa Park due to the foot and ankle injury he sustained at Wembley, but no timeframe has been provided regarding his return to first-team action.

Sergio Aguero could miss out again having been left out of the last two squads due to what Guardiola described as a "number of niggles," with Gabriel Jesus potentially leading the line as a more orthodox striker once more.

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; McGinn, Luiz, Nakamba; Traore, Watkins, El Ghazi

Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Zinchenko; Silva, Rodri, Gundogan; Mahrez, Jesus, Foden


SM words green background

We say: Aston Villa 0-2 Manchester City

Without Grealish, it is difficult to envisage Villa laying a glove on City, who will be highly motivated to bounce back after recent defeats to Leeds and Chelsea.

A win would go a long way to securing yet another league title for the club, and we expect City to edge a tight encounter on Wednesday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 70.22%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 13.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-3 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 2-1 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Man City

Aston Villa
20.2%
Draw
10.3%
Manchester City
69.6%
263
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Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne pictured in action against Chelsea in the FA Cup on April 17, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Arsenal28204470244664
2Liverpool28197265263964
3Manchester CityMan City28196363283563
4Aston Villa29175760421856
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs28165759421753
6Manchester UnitedMan Utd28152113939047
7West Ham UnitedWest Ham2912894650-444
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2811985044642
9Wolverhampton WanderersWolves28125114244-241
10Newcastle UnitedNewcastle281241259481140
11Chelsea27116104745239
12Fulham29115134344-138
13Bournemouth2898114152-1135
14Crystal Palace2878133348-1529
15Brentford2975174154-1326
16Everton2887132939-1025
17Luton TownLuton2957174260-1822
18Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest2967163551-1621
19Burnley2945202963-3417
20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd2835202474-5014

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