Even without Puig, the Galaxy will be heavy favourites for this clash, though we expect they will be left frustrated against a side with tremendous resolve who are more than comfortable hanging back.
The Red Bulls are peaking at the right time, and their outstanding goalkeeping should keep them alive on Saturday, while they have been clinical when needed in the playoffs, which is why we project them to pull off what could go down as the biggest upset in the history of the MLS Cup finals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 53.86%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 24.15% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Los Angeles Galaxy in this match.
-0.85) 
0.56) 
