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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 23, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Leipzig logo

Mainz 05
3 - 2
RB Leipzig

Niakhate (24', 35'), Barreiro (50')
Niakhate (40'), da Costa (75')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Halstenberg (30')
Halstenberg (23'), Adams (70'), Orban (88'), Sorloth (90+2')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Mainz 05 host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday, which represents the second-bottom team facing the second-placed side in the table.

Julian Nagelsmann's side won the reverse fixture 3-1 in September.


Match preview

Mainz 05's Levin Oztunali celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Borussia Dortmund on January 16, 2021© Reuters

After a run of nine league matches without a win, Mainz's impressive run of 12 successive seasons in Germany's top flight appears to be coming to a crashing end.

The 2-0 home defeat to Wolfsburg on Tuesday leaves Bo Svensson's side 10 points from safety, with even FC Koln eight points ahead of them in the relegation playoff position.

Svensson could have little complaint with his team's defeat to the Wolves, with Mainz failing to muster a shot on target across the entire 90 minutes.

In truth it was a pretty flat game, with both of Wolfsburg's shots on target leading to goals in a clinical display, with a significantly better performance required from Mainz if they are to have any chance of gaining a positive result against Leipzig.

RB Leipzig's Willi Orban celebrates scoring their second goal against Wolfsburg on January 16, 2021© Reuters

After dropping five points in two games against Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg, Leipzig's home match against Union Berlin was a must-win one in terms of keeping the pressure on league leaders Bayern Munich.

Nagelsmann's side were made to work hard for their 1-0 victory, which was no surprise given how tough Urs Fischer's side have been to get the better of this season.

Leipzig were just about worthy winners, though, having dominated possession and the shot count. Emil Forsberg proved to be the match-winner once again, coming off the substitutes' bench in the second half to fire his side ahead after a fine one-two with Dani Olmo.

In truth, a similarly controlled performance should see Leipzig earn another victory against Mainz, but Nagelsmann will still be demanding more from his players to ensure there are no avoidable slip-ups, which would surely see Bayern run away with things for yet another campaign given the Bavarians' kind run of fixtures.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: DLLLDL
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): LLLLDW

RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WDWLDW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): DWWLDW


Team News

Mainz 05's Jean-Philippe Mateta scores against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on June 27, 2020© Reuters

Mainz will not have Jeremiah St Juste, Daniel Brosinski or Pierre Kunde available due to injury.

Top goalscorer Jean-Phillipe Mateta's time at Mainz appears have come to an end, with an 18-month loan move to Crystal Palace being completed on Thursday. The Eagles have an option to purchase the forward on a permanent basis.

Leipzig fans, meanwhile, will have to wait to see their new signing Dominik Szoboszlai in action due to the Hungary winger still recovering from an ankle injury.

As he often does, Nagelsmann is likely to shuffle his pack against Mainz, but defenders Benjamin Henrichs, Ibrahima Konate and Konrad Laimer will not travel with the squad due to injury.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Niakhate, Bell, Hack; Oztunali, Latza, Barreiro, Boetius, Mwene; Burkhardt, Quaison

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Orban, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Kampl, Sabitzer, Angelino; Forsberg, Olmo; Poulsen


SM words green background

We say: Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig

Defensively, Leipzig have been the most impressive side in the Bundesliga this season, so it is difficult to envisage Mainz even scoring on Saturday having drawn a blank in each of their last four home games.

Nagelsmann's side should comfortably control the game, but may have to remain patient to find the breakthrough.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



ID:431507:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect7858:
Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 67.04%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.04%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-0 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig

Mainz 05
14.6%
Draw
9.0%
RB Leipzig
76.4%
89
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4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Freiburg147342019124
6Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
7Werder Bremen146442224-222
8Wolfsburg146353125621
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