There is a huge game in the Bundesliga relegation battle on Saturday afternoon as Mainz 05 host Arminia Bielefeld.
Mainz are currently in 15th position, one point clear of the relegation playoff spot and two points ahead of Bielefeld, who are in 17th.
Match preview
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Mainz moved out of the bottom three for the first time since November when they beat Hoffenheim 2-1 before the international break.
Robert Glatzel opened the scoring after only 26 seconds before Ihlas Bebou pegged the 05ers back, but Dominik Kohr restored their lead just two minutes later, and they held out for all three points in the second half.
After a 1-0 win over Freiburg the previous weekend, it was the first time that Mainz had recorded back-to-back victories this season and was another sign of their progression under Bo Svensson.
The Danish boss took charge in January and since then Mainz have won five times, having picked up just one victory in their first 17 matches of the season, while they are currently on a run of one defeat in seven.
This could be a pivotal period in the club's battle against the drop as after hosting Bielefeld, they travel to FC Koln, who are immediately below them in the table, and then host Hertha Berlin, who are immediately above them.
However, Mainz are the only Bundesliga side yet to win against either of the newly-promoted clubs – Bielefeld and Stuttgart – this season, and they lost 2-1 on their trip to Bielefelder Alm in December.
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That is reflective of Arminia's good record against teams around them; they have taken 12 of a possible 15 points against the current bottom four teams this season.
The strugglers have only won twice on the road this season, but they did beat Bayer Leverkusen on their most recent away outing.
That stands as Frank Kramer's only win from four games since being appointed at the beginning of March, and Bielefeld lost 1-0 to title-chasers RB Leipzig last time out.
However, the international break will have given Kramer the chance to work hard with his new squad, and they will know that victory at the Opel Arena would see them leapfrog Mainz.
Despite Arminia's lowly position, only RB Leipzig's Peter Gulacsi and Koen Casteels of Wolfsburg have kept more Bundesliga clean sheets this season than Stefan Ortega.
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Team News
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Mainz have been handed a huge boost by the news that Danny da Costa is set to be fit and available for Saturday's game after he was forced off with a hamstring problem in the win over Hoffenheim.
Da Costa's arrival on loan from Eintracht Frankfurt in January has coincided with the club's upturn in form as the German has contributed both offensively and defensively at right wing-back.
It could mean that Svensson names an unchanged team, although Quaison could be in contention for a first start since recovering from a recent knee injury that has limited him to substitute appearances over the last month.
Amos Pieper is suspended for Bielefeld after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against RB Leipzig, with Mike van der Hoorn expected to replace him in the centre of defence.
Ritsu Doan, who is Arminia's top scorer and netted against Mainz in December, should be available to feature after not appearing for Japan over the international break due to concussion.
Jacob Laursen is likely to replace Anderson Lucoqui at left-back after returning to full fitness following a thigh problem.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St. Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Barreiro, Kohr, Mwene; Boetius, Quaison; Glatzel
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Van der Hoorn, Nilsson, Laursen; Okugawa, Prietl, Maier, Vlap; Doan, Klos
We say: Mainz 05 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Both teams will fancy their chances of winning this one, but we are backing Mainz to get all three points. There has been a real resurgence on the Rhine since the arrival of Svensson, Da Costa and Kohr in January, and we think that their winning run will continue against a Bielefeld side that lack matchwinners.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
