Lyon welcome a recovering Monaco side to the Groupama Stadium on Saturday evening in the latest round of Ligue 1 games.
The hosts are currently 10th in the table, whilst their opponents appear to have put a tough start to the season behind them and have climbed up to sixth in recent weeks.
Match preview
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Lyon are having a mixed campaign to this point, with three wins, four draws and two losses leaving them in the very middle of the table.
By their own high standards, that is a poor showing - the last time they finished outside the top seven was in the 1995-96 season and they have finished in the top four on all but two occasions in the 21st century.
Their form appears to be improving, however, as a narrow loss to Paris Saint-Germain in September is their only defeat in nine games in all competitions.
Some of the draws during that spell should really have been wins, though, including the last match when Peter Bosz's side threw away a one-goal lead away at Saint-Etienne.
After Houssem Aouar had given Les Gones the lead late in the first half, goalkeeper Anthony Lopes received a red card for handling outside the area with a quarter of an hour remaining and his teammates eventually paid the price, giving away a 94th-minute penalty for a Jason Denayer handball and having to watch as Wahbi Khazri put it away to rescue a 1-1 draw.
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Bosz will hope his team can bounce back from that disappointment this weekend, but they will have to do so against a resurgent Monaco side.
After an uncharacteristically poor start to the 2021-22 season, Monaco appear to have finally clicked into gear, helped in no small part by the return to form of Wissam Ben Yedder, who has scored four times in their last three league games.
The most recent of those was a comfortable 3-0 win at home to Bordeaux before the international break, where goals either side of half time from Aurelien Tchouameni and Aleksandr Golovin put Les Monegasques two up and Ben Yedder secured the points with a penalty just after the hour mark.
That moves the principality side up to sixth and brings their goal difference back into the black - now, with the Champions League spots clearly within their reach, manager Niko Kovac will hope to inspire his men to keep up that form.
That is now three consecutive victories in the league and an unbeaten run of six games in all competitions.
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Team News
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Lyon's Lopes will be suspended thanks to the aforementioned red card, so second-choice goalkeeper Julian Pollersbeck will take his place between the sticks and hope not to face another stoppage-time penalty on this occasion.
The hosts will also be without a number of players due to injury - forwards Moussa Dembele and Islam Slimani are out with a calf issue and muscle injury respectively, whilst Lenny Pintor and Jeff Reine-Adelaide are both still suffering with ACL injuries.
Jerome Boateng is fit to return to a defensive four, however, and Emerson may return at left-back after his suspension.
Monaco will also have to deal with suspensions, with midfielders Sofiane Diop and Tchouameni banned for one game, which will see 22-year-old Youssouf Fofana likely start, joining Eliot Matazo in the middle of the pitch.
The Monaco midfield is generally light, with Golovin kept out by a groin injury and Cesc Fabregas still yet to recover from his hamstring issue - the pair are joined in the treatment room by Djibril Sidibe.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Pollersbeck; Dubois, Boateng, Diomande, Emerson; Caqueret, Guimaraes; Shaqiri, Paqueta, Aouar; Toko Ekambi
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Disasi, Maripan, Henrique; Diatta, Matazo, Fofana, Martins; Volland, Ben Yedder
We say: Lyon 2-2 Monaco
The quality within these two squads should mean that this match will be closely fought. How well Monaco will cope without standout midfielder Tchouameni - particularly against Lyon's attacking talents - could be crucial, but they are on an excellent run of form and we are backing them to hold on for an entertaining draw on this occasion.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 45.68%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
