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Benfica
Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 5, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Liverpool logo

Benfica
1 - 3
Liverpool

Nunez (49')
Taarabt (63')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Konate (17'), Mane (34'), Diaz (87')
Alcantara (58')

Preview: Benfica vs. Liverpool - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having been handed what some fans may feel is the most favourable Champions League draw, Liverpool travel to the Estadio da Luz for the first leg of their quarter-final with Benfica on Tuesday night.

The Reds dumped Inter Milan out of the tournament 2-1 on aggregate to make it this far, while Nelson Verissimo's side claimed a 3-2 win over Ajax over two legs.


Match preview

Benfica's Darwin Nunez celebrates scoring their first goal on March 15, 2022© Reuters

With his list of European admirers seemingly growing by the week, effervescent Benfica youngster Darwin Nunez was the hero of the hour for his side against Ajax to propel them into the last eight of the Champions League in Amsterdam.

After the two underdogs had played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in the first leg, Nunez headed home the only goal of the second leg with 13 minutes remaining to upset the odds somewhat, and the free-scoring Uruguayan could certainly command a hefty figure from interested parties this summer.

Nunez was on target once again against Sporting Braga in Friday's Primeira Liga battle - this time off the bench - but his penalty proved inconsequential as Benfica went down 3-2 on the night, with Vitinha netting the all-important winner for the hosts.

Seeing a nine-game unbeaten run in all competitions come to an end is hardly ideal preparation for a meeting with Liverpool, and Benfica have never made it past the quarter-finals of the Champions League in its current format - most recently bowing out to Bayern Munich at this stage in 2015-16.

Still, two strikes against Sporting Braga at least kept up Benfica's strong run of scoring in every game since the turn of the year, and they have won six of their last eight Champions League games on their own turf, so Liverpool must have their wits about them lest they end up like Barcelona.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp on March 20, 2022© Reuters

If any team was going to break Liverpool's remarkable resilience on the Anfield turf, it would be Scudetto holders Inter Milan, who did so in some style as Lautaro Martinez rifled in a spectacular long-range effort to make things interesting in the second leg.

However, Alexis Sanchez's red card not long after killed any Nerazzurri hopes of a dramatic fightback, as Liverpool's San Siro endeavours saw them through to the quarter-finals, and the quadruple dream is still alive for the raucous Kop.

The Reds were far from their free-flowing best in Saturday's Premier League clash with Watford but nevertheless got over the line through Diogo Jota's header and Fabinho's penalty - a result which saw them rise to the summit for all of two-and-a-half hours before Manchester City restored order.

Defeat to Inter in the second leg is the only game that Liverpool have not won in their last 17 across all competitions - each of their last seven away matches has ended in victory - and Klopp's side went through all of February and March without conceding a goal away from home.

Liverpool were sent packing at this stage in the 2020-21 Champions League by Real Madrid, though, and they also lost 3-0 on aggregate to Benfica in the last 16 of the 2005-06 edition before advancing 5-3 on aggregate in the quarters of the 2009-10 Europa League.

Benfica Champions League form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Benfica form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L

Liverpool Champions League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Liverpool form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Trent Alexander-Arnold warms up for Liverpool in January 2022© Reuters

Benfica's injury situation has remained fairly stable in recent weeks, and Verissimo was able to welcome Haris Seferovic back as a substitute in the loss to Braga on Friday night.

Fellow striker Rodrigo Pinho is still absent, though, as is Lucas Verissimo, whose season is seemingly over as he recovers from a ruptured cruciate ligament. Adel Taarabt also missed the Braga loss due to an adductor issue but has since taken part in training and will seemingly be fine for this one.

Nicolas Otamendi - one of seven Benfica players who would miss the second leg if they are booked here - and Jan Vertonghen prepare for their returns to the familiar Anfield turf, and Nunez will undoubtedly return to the first XI, most likely in place of Goncalo Ramos.

Despite Klopp initially claiming that Trent Alexander-Arnold would take "weeks" to recover from his hamstring issue, the right-back was on the bench against Watford and could be ready for his comeback at the Estadio da Luz.

Curtis Jones and Joel Matip are also expected to be passed fit despite picking up minor ankle and head knocks respectively, while Naby Keita is ready to make his comeback from a knee injury as Klopp selects from a fully-fit squad this week.

Mohamed Salah endured a tough time of things against Hassane Kamara on Saturday, and with Sadio Mane and Luis Diaz providing fresher options from the bench, Klopp has a massive decision to make in the final third this week.

Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Silva, Mario, Weigl, Everton; Nunez, Yaremchuk

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Jota, Mane, Diaz


SM words green background

We say: Benfica 1-2 Liverpool

A Nunez-inspired Benfica ought to be well up for this colossal European tie in front of their own fans, but their veteran backline of Vertonghen and Otamendi could prove easy pickings for Liverpool's rampant attackers.

Klopp admitted that his side did not create enough against Watford as the players begin to gel following the international break, and this may be a closer affair than the Reds would like, but they should still take advantage of Benfica's recent defensive lapses to claim a first-leg advantage.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Benfica vs Liverpool

Benfica
15.1%
Draw
13.0%
Liverpool
71.9%
537
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Diogo Jota celebrates scoring for Liverpool against Watford in the Premier League on April 2, 2022
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