Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Clermont win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for Pau had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Clermont win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.