Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (9.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.