Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 58.74%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 20.93% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 1-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Rennes win was 1-2 (5.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.