Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31

Apr 27, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
4 - 1
Brest

Gouiri (8', 45', 63'), Greenwood (37')
Murillo (41')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Sima (25')
Ajorque (36'), Chardonnet (71'), Le Cardinal (88'), Lees-Melou (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Marseille 5-1 Montpellier
Saturday, April 19 at 8.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Brest 1-3 Lens
Sunday, April 20 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 66.88%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Brest had a probability of 15.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Brest win it was 1-2 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Brest
66.88% ( -0.28)	18.12% ( 0.1)	15.01% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 58.38% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.96% (

-0.12)

34.04% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.08% (

-0.13)

55.91% (

0.13)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.57% (

-0.1)

9.42% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.32% (

-0.23)

31.68% (

0.23)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.45% (

0.15)

35.55% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.69% (

0.15)

72.31% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Marseille 66.88%

Brest 15.01%

Draw 18.12%

Marseille	Draw	Brest
2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.34% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.62% Total : 66.88%	1-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 18.12%	1-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.34% Total : 15.01%