Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 47.97%. A win for Clermont had a probability of 26.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Clermont win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.