Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 18

Jan 14, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade Francis-Le Ble

Brest
2 - 0
Montpellier

Mounie (21'), Magnetti (48'), Le Douaron (90+2')
Magnetti (45')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Chotard (44'), Jullien (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Brest 1-0 Angers
Saturday, January 6 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Amiens 1-2 Montpellier
Saturday, January 6 at 5pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 22.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
Brest	Draw	Montpellier HSC
53.36% ( 0.25)	24.18% ( -0.06)	22.46% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 51.52% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.28% (

0.06)

49.72% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.27% (

0.05)

71.73% (

-0.05)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.43% (

0.12)

18.57% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.16% (

0.2)

49.83% (

-0.2)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.27% (

-0.14)

36.72% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.49% (

-0.14)

73.51% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Brest 53.35%

Montpellier HSC 22.46%

Draw 24.18%

Brest	Draw	Montpellier HSC
1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.23% Total : 53.35%	1-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.18%	0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.76% Total : 22.46%