Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 68.09%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Metz had a probability of 12.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.