Liga MX | Gameweek 10
Mar 2, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Tigres

Toluca
2 - 1
Tigres

Vega (54'), Volpi (71' pen.)
Vega (52'), Lopez (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Herrera (35')
Pizarro (52'), Guzman (56'), Sanchez (68')
Cordova (45+6')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Tigres.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 2-0 Tijuana
Sunday, February 25 at 6pm in Liga MX

Tigres

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Tigres 1-0 Juarez
Thursday, February 29 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Tigres win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Toluca in this match.

Result
TolucaDrawTigres
40.97% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)25.01% (-0.113 -0.11)34.02% (0.169 0.17)
Both teams to score 57.3% (0.442 0.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.93% (0.552 0.55)46.07% (-0.555 -0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.63% (0.52 0.52)68.37% (-0.52200000000001 -0.52)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.59% (0.21000000000001 0.21)22.41% (-0.213 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.07% (0.315 0.31)55.92% (-0.317 -0.32)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.85% (0.369 0.37)26.15% (-0.37 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.77% (0.49100000000001 0.49)61.23% (-0.492 -0.49)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 40.97%
    Tigres 34.02%
    Draw 25%
TolucaDrawTigres
2-1 @ 8.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 8.76% (-0.152 -0.15)
2-0 @ 6.56% (-0.071000000000001 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.38% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.27% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.048 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.64% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.22% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.1% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 40.97%
1-1 @ 11.75% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.9% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 5.86% (-0.138 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1.32% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25%
1-2 @ 7.89% (0.031 0.03)
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.102 -0.1)
0-2 @ 5.27% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.53% (0.05 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.64% (0.054 0.05)
0-3 @ 2.36% (0.019 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.18% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 34.02%

Head to Head
Oct 5, 2023 4am
Gameweek 11
Tigres
2-2
Toluca
Angulo (45+5'), Gignac (76')
Gignac (48'), Carioca (63'), Angulo (68'), Herrera (90+9'), Flores (90+9')
Ruiz (44'), Morales (90+4')
Meneses (24'), Isais (59'), Morales (77'), Ruiz (90+2')
Meneses (45+2')
May 14, 2023 7pm
Toluca
3-1
Tigres
Lopez (26', 53'), Ruiz (45+3')
Cordova (71')
May 12, 2023 4.10am
Tigres
4-1
Toluca
Cordova (14'), Gignac (31' pen.), Vigon (45+5'), Lopez (72')
Fernandez (8')
Apr 2, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 13
Toluca
3-2
Tigres
Lichnovsky (27' og.), Gonzalez (45+1', 69')
Gignac (76'), Lopez (90' pen.)
Sep 8, 2022 1am
Gameweek 13
Tigres
3-1
Toluca
Cordova (41'), Gignac (62'), Thauvin (80')
Meneses (68')