CONCACAF Champions League | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 7, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Herediano
1 - 2
Toluca

Vega (88', 88')
Galo (66'), Galo (66')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Pereira (16', 16'), Morales (59', 59')
Manuel Arteaga Camarena (36'), Arteaga (36'), Belmonte (45+2'), Belmonte (45+2'), Baeza (73'), Baeza (73')
Coverage of the CONCACAF Champions League First Round clash between Herediano and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Herediano

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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 4-1 Club Leon
Saturday, February 3 at 11pm in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Herediano had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.98%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Herediano win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toluca in this match.

Result
HeredianoDrawToluca
36.54% (-0.37 -0.37)23.68% (0.016999999999999 0.02)39.78% (0.353 0.35)
Both teams to score 62.62% (-0.104 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.65% (-0.121 -0.12)39.35% (0.121 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.31% (-0.127 -0.13)61.68% (0.126 0.13)
Herediano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.35% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)21.65% (0.239 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.23% (-0.369 -0.37)54.77% (0.367 0.37)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.92% (0.11 0.11)20.08% (-0.111 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.68% (0.18 0.18)52.31% (-0.181 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Herediano 36.54%
    Toluca 39.78%
    Draw 23.67%
HeredianoDrawToluca
2-1 @ 8.17% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-0 @ 6.65% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.09% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
3-1 @ 4.17% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.35% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-0 @ 2.6% (-0.042 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.6% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.28% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 0.99% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 36.54%
1-1 @ 10.67% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.56% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.024 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.79% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.67%
1-2 @ 8.57% (0.045 0.04)
0-1 @ 6.98% (0.063 0.06)
0-2 @ 5.6% (0.07 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.59% (0.04 0.04)
2-3 @ 3.51% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 3% (0.048 0.05)
1-4 @ 1.84% (0.022 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.41% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.2% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 39.78%

rhs 2.0


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