Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 41%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 35.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.49%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Toluca win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.