Liga MX | Gameweek 3
Jul 16, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
2 - 4
Juarez

Morales (20'), Volpi (70' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Urzi (18'), Saucedo (64'), Escoto (77'), Garcia (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Liga MX clash between Toluca and Juarez, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Cruz Azul 0-2 Toluca
Sunday, July 9 at 12.50am in Liga MX

Juarez

All competitions
Last Game: Juarez 1-1 Tigres
Sunday, July 9 at 1.06am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Juarez had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Juarez win it was 0-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
TolucaDrawJuarez
61.56% (0.499 0.5)21.51% (-0.163 -0.16)16.94% (-0.332 -0.33)
Both teams to score 50.88% (-0.15 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.98% (0.144 0.14)46.03% (-0.14 -0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.67% (0.135 0.13)68.33% (-0.13 -0.13)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.58% (0.208 0.21)14.43% (-0.203 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.64% (0.392 0.39)42.36% (-0.387 -0.39)
Juarez Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.46% (-0.32 -0.32)40.54% (0.326 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.86% (-0.29 -0.29)77.15% (0.294 0.29)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 61.55%
    Juarez 16.94%
    Draw 21.51%
TolucaDrawJuarez
1-0 @ 11.32% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 10.96% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 7.07% (0.11 0.11)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.044 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.42% (0.078 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.09% (0.043 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.88% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.33% (0.04 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.2% (0.025 0.03)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 61.55%
1-1 @ 10.22% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 5.85% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 21.51%
0-1 @ 5.28% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
1-2 @ 4.62% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.38% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.39% (-0.035 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.35% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 16.94%

Head to Head
Apr 23, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 16
Toluca
1-1
Juarez
Volpi (45+4' pen.)
Chavez (69')
Oct 9, 2022 6pm
Toluca
3-0
Juarez
Sanvezzo (23'), Gonzalez (46'), Ruiz (90+2')
Jul 30, 2022 3.05am
Gameweek 6
Juarez
1-1
Toluca
Olivera (88')
Meneses (90+2')
Apr 20, 2022 3am
Gameweek 15
Toluca
0-1
Juarez
Castaneda (19'), Baeza (59'), Ortega (75')
Garcia (66')
Jul 24, 2021 3am
Gameweek 1
Juarez
1-3
Toluca