Tigres
Liga MX | 1st Leg
May 12, 2023 at 4.10am UK
Estadio Universitario

Tigres
4 - 1
Toluca

Cordova (14'), Gignac (31' pen.), Vigon (45+5'), Lopez (72')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Fernandez (8')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Tigres and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tigres

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Tigres (9-8 pen.)
Monday, December 15 at 1am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Tigres (9-8 pen.)
Monday, December 15 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 59.24%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 19.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigres would win this match.

Result
TigresDrawToluca
59.24% (-0.88 -0.88)21.62% (0.009999999999998 0.01)19.14% (0.869 0.87)
Both teams to score 54.78% (1.579 1.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.05% (1.311 1.31)42.95% (-1.313 -1.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.65% (1.286 1.29)65.35% (-1.288 -1.29)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.85% (0.15600000000001 0.16)14.14% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.19% (0.304 0.3)41.8% (-0.306 -0.31)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.8% (1.723 1.72)36.2% (-1.725 -1.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.01% (1.711 1.71)72.98% (-1.713 -1.71)
Score Analysis
    Tigres 59.24%
    Toluca 19.14%
    Draw 21.61%
TigresDrawToluca
1-0 @ 10.01% (-0.53 -0.53)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.79% (-0.456 -0.46)
3-1 @ 6.49% (0.04 0.04)
3-0 @ 6.39% (-0.265 -0.27)
3-2 @ 3.3% (0.17 0.17)
4-1 @ 3.17% (0.038 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.12% (-0.111 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.61% (0.092 0.09)
5-1 @ 1.24% (0.021 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.22% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 59.24%
1-1 @ 10.17% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.12% (-0.303 -0.3)
2-2 @ 5.06% (0.235 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.12% (0.106 0.11)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.61%
0-1 @ 5.2% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.17% (0.212 0.21)
0-2 @ 2.64% (0.094 0.09)
1-3 @ 1.75% (0.149 0.15)
2-3 @ 1.71% (0.154 0.15)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 19.14%

Head to Head
Apr 2, 2023 7pm
gameweek 13
Toluca
3-2
Tigres
Lichnovsky (27' og.), Gonzalez (45+1', 69')
Gignac (76'), Lopez (90' pen.)
Sep 8, 2022 1am
gameweek 13
Tigres
3-1
Toluca
Cordova (41'), Gignac (62'), Thauvin (80')
Meneses (68')
Apr 17, 2022 1am
gameweek 14
Tigres
3-0
Toluca
Vigon (59'), Cordova (67'), Gignac (71')
Pizarro (86')

Sierra (75')
Aug 1, 2021 6pm
gameweek 2
Toluca
3-1
Tigres
Lopez (33'), Canelo (83'), Samudio (90+6')
Barbieri (90+10')
Pizarro (27')
Pizarro (60'), Vigon (61')
Pizarro (64')
Mar 3, 2021 1am
gameweek 8
Tigres
0-1
Toluca

Salcedo (2'), Quinones (7'), Pizarro (80')
Canelo (55')
Baeza (40')